The EU membership does not increase a country’s growth , says a new sensational research paper from the University of Southern Denmark , published few days before the British referendum on the EU membership.
It has no influence on the economic growth of a country if it is an EU member or not. This is the conclusion from a sensational analysis midst of the tense election campaign in the UK, where higher economic growth is the remain campaigns’s primary argument for keeping the country in the European Union .
“We are unable to show that the EU membership leads to higher growth” concludes Thomas Barnebeck Andersen, a professor at the University of Southern Denmark , Mikkel Barslund , Ph.D. and employed at the think tank European Policy Studies and Pieter Vanhuysse , professor at the university , in a 37-page research paper which has just been published.
“The EU membership has therefore apparently not increased the economic growth of the countries,” they write.
The three researchers have compared the growth in all EU countries from 1961 to 2015 with the countries of the Western cooperation organization OECD and finds no clear evidence that EU membership increases a country’s wealth, when measuring the GDP per capita.
It “strongly suggests” that the EU economies have grown “at the same pace” as the countries they most resemble, the researchers write.
Over overall EU economy grew by almost 2 per cent on average between 1980 and 2015. By comparison, the US economy grew by 2.6 per cent. over the same period. This means that the EU economy will double after 36 years, while it takes only USA 27 years to double the economy, writes one of the economists, Thomas Barnebeck Andersen, who elaborates the research findings in an article.
In an article in the Danish daily Jyllands-Posten the 10th of June several leading economists are quoted for agreeing.
According to economics professor at Aarhus University Bjørnskov the EU is a ‘mixed box of everything’, and although the internal free trade across borders increases the growth, then other things are pulling the other way.
“A country like Estonia have for example raised its tariff barriers against the rest of the world when they entered the EU. The Agricultural policy is also led by the countries that are least willing to growth reforms, “he said.
Philipp Schröder , Professor at Aarhus University , calls the research paper ‘ extremely well ‘ methodical work, but denies that one can conclude quite conclusively the link between growth and EU membership. There are too many things that come into play in the economy , he said.
Nicolai Kaarsen Ph.D. and economist at the think tank Kraka agrees, but points out that the outcome throws gravel in to the yes –side’s machinery at a time when voters are split into two between the remain or exit.
“It is clear that it can be a problem for the yes side , there is no firm evidence that EU membership gives more growth .”
Here you can read the reaserch paper: economic reasearch paper on the EU membership
My conclusion: Denmark joined the EU with the UK in 1973 and I think it is best for both of our countries to leave the EU. We can build a more democratic co-operation outside the EU.